China's high housing prices: the mobility of the game system created
scholars have used the price earnings ratio and return on rental housing prices in China measured unreasonably far in the system has shown its rationality.
From the supply side see, the local government monopoly for the supply of housing land to provide fueled engine. So under the system, the Chinese real estate is no longer a simple manufacturing enterprises, but the land bank, its operating profit models rely on large land reserves and the future from the land rise in profit, as long as the money is not tight, almost no pressure real estate developers, and developers get the money almost from the credit, local governments will consciously control the supply of preservation for you, out of so many real estate but do not worry one day, , very many ways, so the rigid requirements, currency over fears of inflation caused by forced completely out of housing consumption attributes, but rather as a natural hedge with gold, like goods, the value of gold is not used, and rental housing prices in China do not have to look at the rate of return.
In fact, more critical is the relaxation of credit conditions, if the banking system is willing to liabilities for future asset quality deterioration and to bear more responsibility, the Chinese super large enough population base needs the ability to pay will not become a reality demands the release of many years. Of course, low technology, China's financial sector will be restricted to enlarge its ability to leverage, but the population base is huge, although you do not like the Americans have engaged in the guise of a variety of sub-prime innovation, but the Chinese dumping the power of three families together enough to save a mortgage down payment.
Chinese bank mortgage lenders rarely take into account the first source of repayment and the ability to see a Taiwanese author recently wrote the book,Moncler Online, she was a university researcher in Germany, there is a non- salary calculation micro book,Moncler Online, like housing loans, but not by the bank because she had to prove in the next 10 years to repay the loan, 15 or 20 years continued to have a fixed income have to have a lasting mm that is the job work contract , not in college she finally get her husband to work this thing, which in China is likely to do?
outlook in the short term, China's housing prices are soaring again into a stage, depending on whether banks to relax credit conditions again made impulse, but down trend is still difficult to form (in the short term), as long as the money is not tight, and supply and can be controlled, to face an uncertain future, the developer's strategy is to control or more than the amount of new construction and extension of the construction period, if the excessive cash into capital formation, once the situation has changed, it would be , if not timely arrival of the crisis, I am afraid that the moment of real estate to be drained more than half.
the next two to three years, the money supply has been difficult to substantially tighten up, this round of government investment-led economic stimulus, is doomed after next year money supply and credit will maintain a high level as long as the overall monetary easing, the developers can not get to worry about money (state-owned enterprises can dry real estate, state-owned enterprises can also obtain credit from private developers, need to be dumping.
Although many reasons to support China's house prices fell for it, but the long term, no country can resist changes in future population and the objective laws of social structure - the aging, when the wealth of a country home constituted mainly by real estate, when wealthy families in China after 90 have (or inherit) when three or more properties, who to maintain the country's household wealth not to devalue it, it is indeed a question worth considering?
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